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Showing posts from December, 2016

The Post Election Rally - A Case Study in Directional Volatility

A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD Over the past 28 days following the US Presidential election, the S&P has been on a tear returning more than 6% in a little more than 5 weeks time.  For the sake of context, the index returned just over 1.5% for the one year prior to the election while the 28 day post-election rally is in the 90th percentile of returns over the same time period since the inception of the S&P 500 (the orange line in the histogram represents the most recent 28 day performance). It is important to note that not all rallies are created equal, however.  The majority of 28 day return distributions to the right of our current mark came on the heels of downside volatility when prices are subject to wild fluctuations in both directions.  That has not been the case in the fall of 2016 though as this rally is almost a pure breakout following an unexpected outcome in the election that is expected to favor corporate profitability. Typically, increases in the price of volatility are asso