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Showing posts from October, 2020

Tech Mean Reversion 3.0?

HISTORICALLY OVEREXTENDED  For anyone who followed the previous blog, you're familiar with the concept of 'Market Variance.'  It's used to describe situations where price actions have moved away from a trailing average in a significant way. https://bluehorseshoefinance.blogspot.com/2018/11/market-data-analytics-variance-revisited.html Typically, my writing has focused on one day candle charts but a market variance of historic proportions has emerged in the Nasdaq monthly chart that is certainly worth taking note of.  Here's a historical Nasdaq 100 chart with monthly candles: The blue line in the chart represents the 20 period simple moving average (will now be referred to as the 20 SMA).  As of this writing, the 20 SMA is at 8927 while the Nasdaq current price is 11665... a huge nominal difference to say the least. The technical indicator previously cited, Market Variance, was built to quantify the extent to which a price varies from some appreciable mean relative t...