Skip to main content

Day Trade Watch List for Monday, July 20, 2015

I'm pretty bearish for Monday and will be watching three general things going into the day...

1) Oil & Oil Services Stocks - Crude is in another breakdown pattern and there is very little in the way of technical support to stop its current slide.  Also, Halliburton (HAL) reports earnings before the bell... this could be a nice catalyst for a breakdown in a lot of oil related names if the news is not good.

2) China - Obviously, there's been a lot of volatility in Chinese stocks before they regrouped a bit last week... however, the FXI is still in a nasty technical bear pattern so I'm looking for a possible breakdown going into the day... check the overnight markets before the bell.

3) The S&P - The teflon market bounced back strong last week after a hint of volatility shook things up the two weeks prior.  The SPY is pushing back up against its highs and will try to break out this week... however, with little technical support to push it higher I think it could be tough... but if any market can do it, it's this one.


TREND picks - long term trends with relatively low variance to moving averages

Longs:
GS
FEYE
GPRO
SUNE
UA
TMUS
BMY


Shorts:

BIDU
WYNN
UNP
TLT
TWTR
STX
ACE
AKAM
VIPS


BREAKOUT picks - momentum names

Longs:
EXPE
TSLA
SGEN
VLO
ILMN
HFC
NFLX
CELG
HCA
DG
MNST
CME
VRTX

Shorts:
HAL - watch for pre-market earnings
CTRP
RAX
GMCR
SSYS
TTM
SNDK
KSS
FSLR
XOM
KORS
NUS
CREE
IOC


REVERSION picks - names exhibiting large variances from moving averages and typically losing the momentum that got them to elevated levels

Shorts:
FAS
PANW
XON
PM
LMT
IBB
BDX
ALK

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Modeling Credit Risk...

     Here's a link to a presentation I gave back in August on modeling credit risk.  If anyone would like a copy of the slides, go ahead and drop me a line... https://www.gotostage.com/channel/39b3bd2dd467480a8200e7468c765143/recording/37684fe4e655449f9b473ec796241567/watch      Timeline of the presentation: Presentation Begins:                                                                0:58:00 Logistic Regression:                                     ...
Post a Comment
Read more

Variable Types for Principal Component & Factor Modeling

TRANSFORMING RAW DATA INTO INSIGHT & ACTIONABLE INFORMATION After reading the book Moneyball for the first time, I built a factor model in hopes of finding a way to finally be competitive in my fantasy baseball league - which I had consistently been terrible at.  It worked immediately.  By taking raw data and turning it into actionable information, I was able to solve a problem that had long perplexed me.  It was like discovering a new power.  What else could I do with this? Today, I build models for everything and have come a long way since that first simple spreadsheet but still use a lot of the same concepts. To build a traditional factor model, you would regress a dependent variable against a series of independent variables and use the resulting beta coefficients as the factor weights... assuming your resulting r-squared and t-test showed a meaningful relationship of course. Variables typically fall into one of two categories... continuous or dichotomous....
Post a Comment
Read more

Convexity as a Technical Indicator - Applications of the Second Derivative...

WHAT'S IN A NAME? In investment parlance, the term 'convexity' is typically reserved for the topic of fixed income risk; especially in regards to debt with embedded optionality where negative convexity is a prominent pricing factor.  However, it is important to recall that 'convexity' (or 'concavity', for that matter) is a mathematical measurement used to describe the second derivative of a continuous, nonlinear function on an interval. The issue with confining the term to a single connotation is that - for better or worse - investment tools have become increasingly nonlinear since the days of the 60/40 model and convexity is present in a number of applications.  The extent to which it has been circumscribed to a single asset class is evident in equity option jargon where the second derivative of the pricing function is called 'gamma' instead of convexity.  Of course, the argument could be made that the principle purpose of option vernacular is to c...
Post a Comment
Read more