For just the fourth time since the election, the SPY has closed below the 20 day support level - which has been rock solid until now. There is a good size gap to the next support level with the 50 day currently at $232. It will be interesting to see if the market finally gets a little volatility for the first time since October/November.
Here's a link to a presentation I gave back in August on modeling credit risk. If anyone would like a copy of the slides, go ahead and drop me a line... https://www.gotostage.com/channel/39b3bd2dd467480a8200e7468c765143/recording/37684fe4e655449f9b473ec796241567/watch Timeline of the presentation: Presentation Begins: 0:58:00 Logistic Regression: 1:02:00 Recent Trends in Probabilities of Default: 1:10:20 Machine Learning: 1:15:00 Merton Structural Model: 1:19:30 Stochastic Asset Simulation Model: 1:27:30 T-Year Merton Model:
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