Skip to main content

The Biotech Selloff is Just Getting Started and What That Means for the Broader Market...

THERE'S MORE HERE TO BE SEEN... EVEN AN END HAS A START

An End Has a Start, Editors


Through the summer, 2015 had been a tale of two markets.  Natural resources and Chinese stocks were getting bludgeoned while healthcare and biotech related stocks continued to perform very well.  The relative strength of these sectors was so strong that they actually helped to prop up the broader market for most of the year in spite of massive losses elsewhere.

That all changed last week, however, as healthcare and biotech stocks had an allergic reaction to a combination of prospects for a stronger dollar and comments from presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton.  The iShares biotech ETF (IBB) fell more than 10% last week and has entered a very ominous bearish technical pattern...


Following the August selloff, the sector retraced to - and ricocheted off of - the 50-day resistance level.  It subsequently broke down below 20-day support and is accelerating to the downside with a widening negative moving average variance and no other apparent support levels in sight.

Having now lost the strength of its last remaining stars, the S&P consequently failed to consolidate inside of a very large variance gap... instead, the index closed below that gap and is testing poorly defined support levels with downward pressure mounting over the top in the forms of both the 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Look out below... things may be getting messy again real soon.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Modeling Credit Risk...

     Here's a link to a presentation I gave back in August on modeling credit risk.  If anyone would like a copy of the slides, go ahead and drop me a line... https://www.gotostage.com/channel/39b3bd2dd467480a8200e7468c765143/recording/37684fe4e655449f9b473ec796241567/watch      Timeline of the presentation: Presentation Begins:                                                                0:58:00 Logistic Regression:                                     ...

Modeling Black-Litterman; Part 1 - Reverse Optimization

  "The 'radical' of one century is the 'conservative' of the next." -Mark Twain In this series, I'm going to explore some of the advances in portfolio management, construction, and modeling since the advent of Harry Markowitz's Nobel Prize winning Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) in 1952. MPT's mean-variance optimization approach shaped theoretical asset allocation models for decades after its introduction.  However, the theory failed to become an accepted industry practice, so we'll explore why that is and what advances have developed in recent years to address the shortcomings of the original model. The Problems with Markowitz For the purpose of illustrating the benefits of diversification in a simple two-asset portfolio, Markowitz's model was a useful tool in producing optimal weights at each level of assumed risk to create efficient portfolios.   However, in reality, investment portfolios are complex and composed of large numbers of holdin...

Variable Types for Principal Component & Factor Modeling

TRANSFORMING RAW DATA INTO INSIGHT & ACTIONABLE INFORMATION After reading the book Moneyball for the first time, I built a factor model in hopes of finding a way to finally be competitive in my fantasy baseball league - which I had consistently been terrible at.  It worked immediately.  By taking raw data and turning it into actionable information, I was able to solve a problem that had long perplexed me.  It was like discovering a new power.  What else could I do with this? Today, I build models for everything and have come a long way since that first simple spreadsheet but still use a lot of the same concepts. To build a traditional factor model, you would regress a dependent variable against a series of independent variables and use the resulting beta coefficients as the factor weights... assuming your resulting r-squared and t-test showed a meaningful relationship of course. Variables typically fall into one of two categories... continuous or dichotomous....