WHAT'S GOING ON
Last week, I revisited the subject of the fill gap pattern; when the price of a stock moves into a range formed by a large gap between two respective moving averages, typically the 20 and 50 days. What tends to happen is the stock (or index in this case) will use the respective averages as support and resistance levels and consolidate inside of the range before breaking out in its next move. It looked as if the S&P was entering a gap last week when the index breached the falling 20 day moving average on a strong up move. However, subsequent price action pushed prices back outside of the range and instead of consolidating, the index is now in a low basing pattern and testing its long-term support level.
THE DEATH CROSS; OMEN OF THINGS TO COME OR A DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT?
There's another market phenomenon that has gone overlooked recently and that was the crossing of the 50 day moving average below the 100 day... otherwise known as the death cross. Technicians point to death crosses as omens of impending spikes in market volatility. Last August's dramatic market move and volatility spike were consequently preceded by a death cross.
Death Cross
Strangely enough, this year's price action has not been accompanied by a volatility spike, as yet, even though the same levels are now being tested.
6 Month Vol Chart:
It is also interesting to note that volatility has now moved into a breakout pattern (trading above its moving averages with the gap between the 20 and 50 days widening).
Volatility Breaking Out:
WHERE ARE THE BULLS?
Without a reemergence of market bulls, the current set of factors could spell another round of panicked selling. Watch the 185 level on the SPY (roughly 1,860 on the SPX); if it is breached, things could go south fast.
Last week, I revisited the subject of the fill gap pattern; when the price of a stock moves into a range formed by a large gap between two respective moving averages, typically the 20 and 50 days. What tends to happen is the stock (or index in this case) will use the respective averages as support and resistance levels and consolidate inside of the range before breaking out in its next move. It looked as if the S&P was entering a gap last week when the index breached the falling 20 day moving average on a strong up move. However, subsequent price action pushed prices back outside of the range and instead of consolidating, the index is now in a low basing pattern and testing its long-term support level.
THE DEATH CROSS; OMEN OF THINGS TO COME OR A DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT?
There's another market phenomenon that has gone overlooked recently and that was the crossing of the 50 day moving average below the 100 day... otherwise known as the death cross. Technicians point to death crosses as omens of impending spikes in market volatility. Last August's dramatic market move and volatility spike were consequently preceded by a death cross.
Death Cross
Strangely enough, this year's price action has not been accompanied by a volatility spike, as yet, even though the same levels are now being tested.
6 Month Vol Chart:
It is also interesting to note that volatility has now moved into a breakout pattern (trading above its moving averages with the gap between the 20 and 50 days widening).
Volatility Breaking Out:
WHERE ARE THE BULLS?
Without a reemergence of market bulls, the current set of factors could spell another round of panicked selling. Watch the 185 level on the SPY (roughly 1,860 on the SPX); if it is breached, things could go south fast.
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