Bitcoin Contagion?...

Same Song, Next Verse...

On April 6th, the cryptocurrency market breached the $2 trillion mark in asset valuation for the first time.

However, on April 19th, Bitcoin traded below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since October and has, thus far, failed to reclaim that technical safety level. Also, another bearish indicator is forming as it looks like the 20-day SMA will cross below the 50-day today.

As someone who graduated college in December of 1999 right into the waiting arms of the dotcom crash of 2000 and then, about 7 years later, had a front row seat to the housing crash and subsequent financial crisis, this all looks eerily familiar...

Bitcoint has had a 6x run-up within the span of a baseball season and crypto - in aggregate - is currently about 2% the size of the US equity market.

This all begs the question... 'What happens if this bubble bursts?'

On the surface, it's hard to imagine a repeat of the contagion of 2008/2009 but it also seems unlikely that there won't be some sort of ripple effect should this asset class experiences a significant correction.

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Modeling Credit Risk...

Here's a link to a presentation I gave back in August on modeling credit risk. If anyone would like a copy of the slides, go ahead and drop me a line... https://www.gotostage.com/channel/39b3bd2dd467480a8200e7468c765143/recording/37684fe4e655449f9b473ec796241567/watch Timeline of the presentation: Presentation Begins: 0:58:00 Logistic Regression: 1:02:00 Recent Trends in Probabilities of Default: 1:10:20 Machine Learning: 1:15:00 Merton Structural Model: 1:19:30 Stochastic Asset Simulation Model: 1:27:30 T-Year Merton Model:

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